The CRB Rind Index rejoins the bull camp. This signal is regularly updated on Keystone's Other Market Signals page. This is a very reliable market signal that did not work from April to now. There is only one reason it did not drag markets lower; Fed and BOJ easy money. The prior signals over the last couple years work perfectly signaling weakness in equities when the Rind drops under the 13-week MA. Equity markets then recover and rally when the Rind moves above the 13-week MA. The Rind is important since it represents the raw materials needed by manufacturing industries, and it is lesser known commodities such as leather, paper, etc...
The BOJ monetary policy plays a large role in markets this year and, along with the Fed easy money, negates the April to August sell signal. The QE easy money is simply too powerful creating new all-time market highs and new asset bubbles week after week. There is global central banker intervention ongoing now whereas 2012 and prior was mainly a Fed-only show. Even the general commodities, such as Dr. Copper, has been weak for months but has no negative affect on markets. There is less demand for raw materials (since the global economy is weak and likely weakening) but equities make new highs due to the QE money-printing. Over the last week, the Rind now recovers back above the 13-week MA for a market buy signal. The behavior will be interesting over the next month to see if the CRB Rind turns down again, or not. For now, commodities as a market indicator is not working which goes against tried and true market trends that have held for years and decades. The central banker policies are nullifying the negative affects of lackluster commodity demand.
Here is a summary of recent signals. All work perfectly until April, coincidentally when the BOJ doubled-down on QE yelling Banzai! and destroying the yen as fast as possible to inflate the Nikkei, U.S. and European stock markets. Reference the CRB Trader site for excellent information on commodities.
8/5/13: Market Buy Signal; 522.504/3/13: Market Sell Signal; 538.6211/26/12: Market Buy Signal; 514.9210/15/12: Market Sell Signal; 516.378/6/12: Market Buy Signal; 508.483/26/12: Market Sell Signal; 540.371/9/12: Market Buy Signal; 527.46
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