China trade data has the bulls running today with copper leading higher. Copper, commodities and semiconductors are the key market movers currently. Watch JJC 39.00 (now above causing bullishness and copper is headed even higher), GTX 4795 (now below causing market negativity) and SOX 473.36 (now above causing market bullishness). The bears need to drag copper and semi's lower while the bulls need to send commodities higher. Keybot the Quant is short and today will determine if a whipsaw back to the long side occurs, or not. A push above SPX 1695 may place the bulls back in the drivers seat. For the SPX starting at 1691, the bulls need 1695 and higher to create an upside acceleration. The futures point to this occurring in the opening minutes so watch to see if the higher numbers hold, or not. The bears need to push under 1685 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1686-1694 is sideways action today. The 8 MA is below the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets ahead, however, the 8 MA is sloping upwards and the bulls are going to try and create a positive 8/34 cross today to regain market control. The SPX held the 20-day MA support at 1690.05 yesterday.
Note Added 10:08 AM: Interesting day. GTX stays bearish. SOX failure occurs. Watch to see if SOX stays under 473.36 for the next several minutes, if so, the SPX should sell off into the 1680's.
Note Added 11:00 AM: SPX 1690.72. The 20-day MA is 1690.84. This is the fight. Bounce or die.
Note Added 11:23 AM: GTX remains bearish. SOX just crossed back above 473.36 but see if it holds over the coming minutes, or not. If SOX collapses under 473.36 again that should drive markets strongly lower. A SOX bounce and markets float along with a slight upward bias. SPX continues to decide at the 20-day MA. Bounce or die.
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